Longshot 3/10/2026 Turf Paradise

Race 7 | #3 Love That Witch (M/L 6-1)

At 6-1, #3 Love That Witch stands out as a value contender thanks to strong recent speed figures and tactical pace positioning. She owns some of the most competitive numbers at today’s distance and surface, and her E/P running style allows her to sit just behind the leaders before making her move. With the highest power rating in the field and proven ability to finish, she could get the right trip and turn the tables on the shorter-priced runners.

Bet — #3 Love That Witch
Win: If 5-1 or higher
Exacta: 3 over 2,4

Picking Longshot Podcast

More Detail Below — Full Analysis

Why #3 Dream Knight Can Win

Hot Trainer–Jockey Combo
The partnership between Alexander Crispin and Caryn Vecchio has quietly produced strong results. In their last 11 starts together they have won 27% of the time and finished in the money 55% of the time. Even more notable, the combination has produced a positive ROI, a rare statistic in horse racing and a sign that their runners often outperform betting expectations.

Route Distance Sweet Spot
Dream Knight appears to be placed in an ideal scenario. Caryn Vecchio’s barn performs particularly well in route races, winning about 25% of the time at longer distances. She also shows strong success rates in dirt starts and allowance-level competition, indicating this is a spot where her horses typically perform well.

Hidden Form in Last Start
Dream Knight’s recent third-place finish may look ordinary on paper, but the running line tells a different story. He was bumped at the start and still pressed the pace before weakening late. Despite that troubled trip, he earned a 79 speed figure in an allowance race, a tougher class level than several rivals face regularly. Two races ago he ran an 85 figure in a victory, which would put him among the fastest horses in today’s field if repeated.

Tactical Pace Edge
Listed as E/P 5, Dream Knight has the ideal tactical profile. His early pace numbers allow him to establish position quickly from post 3, either clearing the inside runners or sitting just behind the leaders. If other speed horses engage in a duel, Dream Knight has already demonstrated the ability to sit just off the pace and strike turning for home.

Proven Track Ability
Dream Knight has shown he handles this track well, making him a potential horse-for-the-course. His pedigree also supports sustained dirt performance, being by Always Dreaming and out of a mare by Tapit, both known for producing durable dirt runners capable of thriving in route races.

Final Take

While the morning line favorites may attract most of the betting attention, #3 Dream Knight brings a compelling combination of form, tactical speed, and a hot rider-trainer team. If he returns to his 85-figure performance, he has the ability to outrun his odds and deliver a strong upset at 8-1 or better.