• Fair Grounds 3/22/2026

  Fair Grounds Free Picks – 03/22/2026

  Best Bet | Race 8 Margie’s Intention
  Longshot | Race 5 Wickey Bibby
  Vulnerable Favorite | Race 3 Disco Ball
  Pace Meltdown | Race 6

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  Race 1 | 1m Dirt

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #9 Sweet Aurora G | Power: 31%
  #8 Mojane Metal | Power: 27%
  #3 Kisses for Cooper | Power: 22%
  #6 Cause We Can | Power: 20%

  #9 Sweet Aurora G brings a clear Trainer Edge signal and ranks strongly in the class tables for this maiden claiming event. The move from sprint to route has been productive for the barn and gives this runner a strong foundation in the opener.

  #8 Mojane Metal enters with a Sharp Recent Drill that signals strong current condition, while #3 Kisses for Cooper fits the race well based on recent form and competitive figures. #6 Cause We Can adds early pace presence and could play a key role in shaping the race tempo.

  Projected Pace:
  Moderate with a few runners pressing early.

  Pace Advantage:
  Cause We Can may control the early fractions.

  Race Shape:
  Tactical runners stalking the speed hold the advantage.

  Key Signal:
  Trainer Edge for Sweet Aurora G.

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  Race 2 | 6f Dirt

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #8 Fruit Basket | Power: 30%
  #6 Mr. Brad’s Cowboy | Power: 26%
  #5 Closing Agent | Power: 23%
  #7 Taurean | Power: 21%

  #8 Fruit Basket receives the top ranking in the BRIS summary and profiles as a consistent performer capable of delivering the necessary speed figures in this maiden sprint.

  #6 Mr. Brad’s Cowboy carries an In-Form Rider angle and should be involved early, while #5 Closing Agent has the speed ratings to stay competitive throughout. #7 Taurean exits a Key Race scenario and could improve second time against similar company.

  Projected Pace:
  Honest sprint tempo.

  Pace Advantage:
  Several forward runners competing for the lead.

  Race Shape:
  Late stalkers could benefit from early pressure.

  Key Signal:
  In-Form Rider for Mr. Brad’s Cowboy.

  ---

  Race 3 | 5½f Dirt

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #8 Solidify | Power: 29%
  #3 Disco Ball | Power: 27%
  #2 Double Edge Sword | Power: 24%
  #7 Charco | Power: 20%

  #8 Solidify arrives with a Sharp Recent Drill and fits the sprint profile well. The workout pattern suggests strong readiness and the horse appears capable of taking a step forward in this spot.

  #3 Disco Ball benefits from an In-Form Rider/Barn Team combination and consistently competitive figures. #2 Double Edge Sword is a Distance Proven runner and reliable at the trip, while #7 Charco offers a capable stalking profile if the pace becomes contested.

  Projected Pace:
  Fast early sprint pace.

  Pace Advantage:
  Several speed types could duel.

  Race Shape:
  Pressure could set up a stalker.

  Key Signal:
  Distance Proven angle for Double Edge Sword.

  ---

  Race 4 | 7½f Turf

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #1 Hittin My Stride | Power: 30%
  #9 Madison Rae | Power: 26%
  #4 Slam Diego | Power: 23%
  #6 Roar of Silence | Power: 21%

  #1 Hittin My Stride benefits from a Trainer Edge angle and favorable rider statistics. The combination of class and tactical ability makes this runner a logical top selection in the turf route.

  #9 Madison Rae projects to be forwardly placed and could take advantage of a favorable trip, while #4 Slam Diego consistently runs competitive races at this level. #6 Roar of Silence is Distance Proven and capable of improving if the pace develops favorably.

  Projected Pace:
  Controlled turf route pace.

  Pace Advantage:
  Madison Rae may dictate terms early.

  Race Shape:
  Stalking runners have the edge.

  Key Signal:
  Trainer Edge for Hittin My Stride.

  ---

  Race 5 | 6f Dirt

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #5 Wickey Bibby | Power: 29%
  #6 That’s the Deal | Power: 27%
  #9 Rose Hill Rocket | Power: 23%
  #7 Vanna G | Power: 21%

  #5 Wickey Bibby ranks highest in the BRIS analysis and appears to offer betting value in this claiming sprint. The overall performance ratings suggest this runner fits very well against this field.

  #6 That’s the Deal has the speed figures to challenge throughout, while #9 Rose Hill Rocket should remain within striking distance early. #7 Vanna G represents a consistent competitor that could capitalize if the leaders weaken.

  Projected Pace:
  Fast early fractions.

  Pace Advantage:
  Outside stalkers benefit.

  Race Shape:
  Late runners could rally.

  Key Signal:
  Value profile for Wickey Bibby.

  ---

  Race 6 | 5½f Turf

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #6 Turbo Launch | Power: 31%
  #1 Razorcat | Power: 26%
  #4 Joe’s Candy | Power: 23%
  #2 Got Stripes | Power: 20%

  #6 Turbo Launch brings a strong In-Form Rider/Barn Team combination that has been producing results recently. The consistent performance figures make this runner a major contender.

  #1 Razorcat recorded a Sharp Recent Drill and owns the early speed profile suited for a turf sprint. #4 Joe’s Candy benefits from a Trainer Edge angle, while #2 Got Stripes also carries a Trainer Edge scenario that could produce improvement.

  Projected Pace:
  Very fast sprint pace.

  Pace Advantage:
  Front runners likely duel.

  Race Shape:
  Closers could benefit.

  Key Signal:
  Strong rider/barn combination for Turbo Launch.

  ---

  Race 7 | 1 1/16m Dirt

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #4 Wherethehitsare | Power: 29%
  #2 Bubby | Power: 27%
  #5 Our Moneyman | Power: 24%
  #6 Vitruvius | Power: 20%

  #4 Wherethehitsare tops the BRIS rankings and brings a tactical style that allows for a favorable trip in this route event.

  #2 Bubby benefits from an In-Form Rider and should be forwardly placed, while #5 Our Moneyman adds a powerful rider/trainer combination. #6 Vitruvius has the pace figures to remain competitive throughout.

  Projected Pace:
  Moderate route tempo.

  Pace Advantage:
  Bubby likely near the lead.

  Race Shape:
  Stalkers favored.

  Key Signal:
  Hot connections for Our Moneyman.

  ---

  Race 8 | 1m70yds Dirt

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #2 Margie’s Intention | Power: 33%
  #1 Blue Fire | Power: 27%
  #4 Rising Inflation | Power: 23%
  #5 Canal Street | Power: 17%

  #2 Margie’s Intention stands out as the strongest runner on the card with multiple signals including Track-Proven form, a powerful recent workout, and top overall rankings.

  #1 Blue Fire owns an excellent track record and could control the pace early. #4 Rising Inflation is Distance Proven and competitive at the distance, while #5 Canal Street brings a strong trainer/jockey combination.

  Projected Pace:
  Measured early pace.

  Pace Advantage:
  Blue Fire may control the race early.

  Race Shape:
  Leaders could remain tough to catch.

  Key Signal:
  Track-Proven profile for Margie’s Intention.

  ---

  Race 9 | 5½f Turf

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #5 Murdock | Power: 29%
  #4 Restore | Power: 26%
  #8 Tussling Charlie | Power: 24%
  #6 John the Beer Man | Power: 21%

  #5 Murdock sits atop the rankings and benefits from a rider currently performing well. The overall metrics suggest a strong effort is likely.

  #4 Restore brings consistent figures, while #8 Tussling Charlie is Track-Proven and exits a Possible Key Race. #6 John the Beer Man recorded a Sharp Recent Drill and could improve with that momentum.

  Projected Pace:
  Fast turf sprint.

  Pace Advantage:
  Early speed from inside posts.

  Race Shape:
  Late runners could rally.

  Key Signal:
  Track-Proven form for Tussling Charlie.

  ---

  Race 10 | 6f Dirt

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #9 Hesper | Power: 30%
  #4 Remi | Power: 26%
  #2 I Got the Hint | Power: 24%
  #3 Skenes Crews | Power: 20%

  #9 Hesper holds the top ranking in the BRIS sheet and fits well on both speed and class ratings.

  #4 Remi remains competitive with consistent performances, while #2 I Got the Hint benefits from an In-Form Rider/Barn Team combination. #3 Skenes Crews recorded a Sharp Recent Drill and could improve.

  Projected Pace:
  Fast sprint pace.

  Pace Advantage:
  Several runners contest the lead.

  Race Shape:
  Stalkers favored late.

  Key Signal:
  Top overall ranking for Hesper.

  ---

  Race 11 | 5½f Turf

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #2 Six String | Power: 29%
  #5 Synthetic | Power: 27%
  #7 Bet Towinit | Power: 23%
  #1 Sassi Strutter | Power: 21%

  #2 Six String is Distance Proven and arrives with a strong workout profile. The distance record suggests this horse fits the race very well.

  #5 Synthetic carries a Trainer Edge angle that could produce a strong performance. #7 Bet Towinit benefits from an In-Form Rider, while #1 Sassi Strutter exits a Key Race scenario.

  Projected Pace:
  Quick early fractions.

  Pace Advantage:
  Bet Towinit may press the pace.

  Race Shape:
  Late runners could close.

  Key Signal:
  Distance Proven for Six String.

  ---

  Race 12 | 1 1/16m Dirt

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #5 Mangum | Power: 29%
  #7 Sippin On Gin | Power: 27%
  #9 Letmikefigureitout | Power: 23%
  #1 Benoit | Power: 21%

  #5 Mangum ranks highest overall and appears capable of delivering the required performance figures.

  #7 Sippin On Gin is both Track-Proven and Distance Proven, giving him a strong profile. #9 Letmikefigureitout also owns excellent track numbers, while #1 Benoit exits a Possible Key Race.

  Projected Pace:
  Measured pace.

  Pace Advantage:
  Sippin On Gin could control early.

  Race Shape:
  Stalkers favored.

  Key Signal:
  Track-Proven profile for Sippin On Gin.

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  Race 13 | 1 1/16m Turf

  DRE Selections Top 4

  #3 Gorilla Trek | Power: 30%
  #4 Western Run | Power: 27%
  #2 Bizzee Channel | Power: 23%
  #5 Masqueparade | Power: 20%

  #3 Gorilla Trek carries a Trainer Edge angle that historically produces strong results and fits well against this field.

  #4 Western Run brings an In-Form Rider/Barn Team combination and competitive class numbers. #2 Bizzee Channel could sit close to the pace early, while #5 Masqueparade remains a steady competitor.

  Projected Pace:
  Moderate turf route.

  Pace Advantage:
  Western Run may dictate pace.

  Race Shape:
  Balanced race with tactical runners.

  Key Signal:
  Trainer Edge for Gorilla Trek.

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Fair Grounds Podcast

Why the “Longest Stretch” is Often a Trap

If you’ve ever looked at a track diagram of New Orleans’ historic Fair Grounds and thought, “That massive stretch must be a paradise for closers,” you aren’t alone. But in the world of high-stakes handicapping, what you see on a map and what happens in the dirt are often two different realities.

The secret to winning at the Fair Grounds isn’t just about speed figures; it’s about geometry. Understanding how the physical layout of the track dictates horse behavior is the “value add” that separates the casual bettor from the professional analyst.

The “No-Chute” Conundrum: A Race Won in the First 100 Yards

Most modern North American tracks use “chutes”—extra extensions of straight track—to give horses a long run-up before they hit the first turn. The Fair Grounds doesn’t have them.

Because the starting gate for dirt routes (1 mile or 1 1/16 miles) is positioned so close to the first bend, the race is often decided before the horses even hit the backstretch.

The Outside Post Penalty: Horses drawn in outside stalls must sprint hard just to avoid being parked four or five paths wide on the turn.

The Energy Paradox: By the time these horses reach that famous 1,346-foot stretch, they’ve already “spent their paycheck” just trying to get a position.

Tactical Advantage: This geometric quirk actually favors speed and tactical pressers. They grab the rail early, save ground, and “rest” while the closers are busy navigating traffic and losing ground.

Comparing the “Long Drive Home”

To put the Fair Grounds’ massive stretch in perspective, look at how it towers over other major US circuits. On paper, it looks like a closer’s dream. In practice, it’s a long, lonely road for a horse that used too much gas early.

Turf Strategy: The Rail and the “Deep Root”

The Fair Grounds turf course is a different beast entirely. Unlike the firm, “glib” surfaces you find in California, the New Orleans grass is “deep-rooted.” It’s a more European-style, laborious surface that demands stamina.

The “Rail Effect”

The turf rail at Fair Grounds is frequently moved (0, 7, 14, 21, or 27 feet) to protect the grass. As a bettor, you must check the rail setting:

Rail at 0-7 feet: The course is wide; closers have room to fan out and use the long stretch.

Rail at 14+ feet: The course narrows significantly. The “tight” seven-furlong turns become a nightmare for wide runners. In these scenarios, look for horses with “Front” or “Early” styles who can play “follow the leader” on the inside.

Pro Tip: In turf sprints, speed is king regardless of the stretch length. In turf routes, look for the “grinders”—horses that can maintain a steady, high-cruising speed rather than those relying on a single explosive burst.

The Takeaway for Your Next Ticket

Don’t let the 1,346-foot stretch fool you into betting every deep closer in the program. Look for the horse that can secure a position early without burning too much fuel. At the Fair Grounds, the winner is usually the horse that understands the geometry of the first turn, not just the length of the last one.

Here is a rewritten breakdown of the Crescent City 6, designed to help you decide if it’s worth your bankroll and how to spot the best opportunities.

The Crescent City 6: Is It a Good Bet?

The short answer: It is a mathematically superior bet for the daily player. At most tracks, exotic wagers like a Pick 6 carry a “takeout” (the track’s cut) of 20% to 25%. The Crescent City 6 features a 15% takeout, which is one of the lowest in North America. This means more of the money stays in the players’ pockets.

When it’s a “Great” Bet

The “Single Ticket” Chase: It is a fantastic bet if you are a “budget” player. Because the jackpot only pays out to a single unique winner, you don’t need to spend $500 to win big. A small, $0.20 “skinny” ticket can take down a massive pool if you’re the only one who finds a longshot.

Mandatory Payout Days: Keep an eye on the calendar. On specific days (usually the end of a meet), the track must pay out the entire jackpot even if there are multiple winners. This is the best time to bet, as the “expected value” often exceeds the amount of money actually wagered that day.

The Big Payouts

While daily payouts for multiple winners might range from a few hundred to a few thousand dollars, the Jackpot is where the life-changing money sits. Depending on how long it has been since a single winner hit, these jackpots can climb into the $50,000 to $250,000+ range.

Daily Pool Liquidity

On an average racing day at Fair Grounds, the daily Crescent City 6 pool usually sees $10,000 to $30,000 in new money. However, when the carryover jackpot starts getting high (over $100k), the daily “churn” can spike significantly as professional syndicates jump in.

ro Tip: Because of the “single ticket” rule, avoid “spreading” too much on your ticket with common favorites. If everyone hits the favorites, nobody gets the jackpot. To win the big one, you need at least one “hidden” horse that nobody else

Pro Tip: Because of the “single ticket” rule, avoid “spreading” too much on your ticket with common favorites. If everyone hits the favorites, nobody gets the jackpot. To win the big one, you need at least one “hidden” horse that nobody else has.

Fair Grounds Wagering Menu

If the Pick 6 feels too risky, the Pick 4 and Pick 5 are your “bread and butter” bets due to the competitive takeout rates.

The “80/20” Strategy: How to Not Go Home Broke

When the big races like the Louisiana Derby or the Risen Star roll around, the fields are huge and the betting pools are massive. Don’t just throw everything on a “Win” bet and hope for the best. Use the 80/20 rule to keep your bankroll alive.

The 80% (The Safety Net): Put 80% of your race budget on Place and Show bets for the favorites or strong contenders. This covers your tail if your horse gets caught at the wire.

The 20% (The Home Run): Put the remaining 20% on Win bets for “overlays”—horses whose odds are higher than they actually should be (e.g., a horse that should be 3-1 but is sitting at 8-1).

The Logic: If your horse hits the board but doesn’t win, the 80% usually pays for your day. If he wins, the 20% “Win” bet is pure profit.

The “Post Position” Trap: Fading Outside Speed

On the dirt sprints at Fair Grounds, the rail is king. Statistics show that horses in Posts 1, 2, and 3 win a massive 53% of the time.

The Move: Look for “Speed” horses stuck on the far outside (Post 10, 11, or 12).

Why? Even if they are fast, they have to burn too much gas to get across the track and into the turn without losing ground.

The Betting Tip: If a “heavy favorite” is stuck on the far outside, toss them. Use them to “beat” your Exactas and Trifectas by betting on the inside horses instead. You’ll get much higher payouts by knocking out a popular horse that has a statistical disadvantage.

3. Building a “Skinny” Crescent City 6 Ticket

The Crescent City 6 (Pick 6) has a tiny 15% takeout and a $0.20 minimum, making it the best value on the card. But don’t try to “buy” the race by picking 5 horses in every leg—that gets expensive fast. Build a “Skinny” ticket instead.

The Blueprint:

Find Two “Singles” (Anchors): Look for races where a top trainer like Brad Cox or Joe Sharp has a horse that clearly outclasses the field. If you can “single” two of the six races, your ticket cost drops 75%.

Find a “Two-Horse” Race: Pick one race where you only use your top two choices.

The “Spread” Races: Use the money you saved on your singles to “spread” (pick 4 or 5 horses) in the turf races. Turf racing in New Orleans is notoriously unpredictable—this is where you want the extra coverage.

The Cheat Sheet

Explore our full Fairgrounds Racing Archive to analyze past performance trends and long-term handicapping results

By Bob Shirilla —
Horse Racing Handicapper & Founder, Daily Racing Edge